Bloomberg assessed the possibility of civil unrest in the 20 largest economies in the world.
According to Bloomberg Economics analysis, the USA lags only behind Turkey and Russia among the 20 largest economies in the world that could become victims of violent political upheavals next year.
The analysis shows that in the USA, the probability of open civil unrest is small - 2.9%, but this is the third place among the largest economies in the world. The risk in the USA is higher than in Canada, Germany, and Australia, which are democratic partner countries.
The analysis is based on the approach of the US government's Political Instability Task Force to assess the risk of violent internal conflict. It takes into account the trends that caused concerns of unrest after the attack on the Capitol on January 6, 2021.
The collapse of democratic institutions and the increase in political misunderstandings in the USA have "significantly increased the risk of internal armed conflict".
"Forecasts for rare events, such as internal conflict, come with a high degree of uncertainty. Nevertheless, we believe that this model is a useful way to create an analytical framework for studying the growth of risks in the USA - and the results are far from reassuring", said Bloomberg Economics analyst Nick Holmark.
In Russia, the probability of internal unrest is estimated at 4%.
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